Though we traditionally have a "spring market" and a "fall market" the truth is, we have listings and closings every month of the year. In the spring, homes come on the market, with buyers eager to close in time to use their new homes. In the fall, homes come on the market as their long-term owners finish with them, and the new owners hope to make any changes they desire, and be in by next season. Meanwhile, all summer long, buyers are here, and ready to buy - whether they are renting, or visiting family or friends. The right time to list is often simply a matter of when you are ready.
If you're weighing whether to list this summer in Bay Head or Mantoloking, it's worth knowing how this year actually compares to last. This page tests that question against the local numbers from June through July, 2025 against the same two months in 2026.
Analysis by Suzie Van Schoick and Ed O'Malley, Diane Turton, Realtors. Source: FlexMLS, 7/21/2026.
Comparison of June - July 2025 Market Activity to June-July Market Activity 2026
- Bay Head, Active Inventory: 7 to 7 (flat, current snapshot)
- Bay Head, New Listings: 1 to 6 (+500.0%)
- Bay Head, Closed Sales: 7 to 3 (-57.1%)
- Bay Head, Median Sale Price: $2,350,000 to $6,550,000 (+178.7%)
- Bay Head, Average Days on Market: 31.6 to 169.7 days (+138.1 days)
- Mantoloking, Active Inventory: 12 to 12 (flat, current snapshot)
- Mantoloking, New Listings: 0 to 1
- Mantoloking, Closed Sales: 3 to 4 (+33.3%)
- Mantoloking, Median Sale Price: $3,295,000 to $3,285,000 (-0.3%)
- Mantoloking, Average Days on Market: 159.3 to 72.5 days (-54.5%)
The Three Things Homeowners Are Feeling, and What the Data Says in Each Town
"This summer's market isn't what it was last summer"
In Bay Head, this instinct is only partly right. Closed sales dropped from 7 in June-July 2025 to 3 this year, a 57.1% decrease, and average days on market stretched from 31.6 to 169.7 days. But pending contracts actually rose from 3 to 5, a 66.7% increase, and median sale price climbed 178.7%, so the slowdown shows up in pace and closed volume, not in what buyers are willing to pay. In Mantoloking, the year-over-year comparison doesn't support the feeling at all: median sale price is essentially flat (-0.3%), closed sales are up 33.3%, and average days on market improved by 54.5%. Verdict: partly true in Bay Head, not supported by the data in Mantoloking.
"There are no buyers left"
Bay Head's closed sales fell 57.1%, which could look like buyers disappearing, but pending contracts, homes currently under agreement, rose 66.7% over the same stretch, and new listings jumped 500.0%. That points to more activity moving through the pipeline, with some of it landing after this window closes, rather than buyers stepping back. Mantoloking's data is even more direct: closed sales rose 33.3% and a new pending contract appeared where there was none last year. Verdict: not supported by the data in either town.
"I should just wait for next year"
In Bay Head, median sale price is already up 178.7% year over year, and pending contracts are climbing, so there's no data suggesting a pause would produce a better outcome than acting on the current pricing environment. In Mantoloking, the market this year is steady to improved on every metric that matters to a seller, faster average days on market, more closed sales, essentially unchanged pricing, which gives a seller no real evidence that next year would look meaningfully different. Verdict: not supported by the data in either town.
What This Means If You List Now
In Bay Head, the number to plan around is timeline, not price. With average days on market at 169.7 days and 6 new listings entering the market this year against last year's single new listing, competition has grown, but the 5 pending contracts currently in progress and the 178.7% rise in median sale price both suggest the properties that do sell are commanding meaningfully stronger prices than a year ago. A seller should price against this year's closings, not last year's, and expect a longer path to close.
In Mantoloking, there's little reason to deviate from current pricing strategy. Average days on market improved to 72.5 days from 159.3 a year ago, closed sales are up, and the median sale price has barely moved. A seller entering the market now is stepping into conditions that closely track last summer's, with a modest edge on speed.
Why Automated Estimates Lag a Seasonal Turn
Automated valuation tools typically average sales over a trailing window of several months, which means an estimate pulled today may still be weighted toward Bay Head's $2,350,000 median from June-July 2025 long after the market moved to $6,550,000. In markets this thin, where only three to seven homes close across a two-month window in either town, a single high-value sale can swing a median substantially without an automated tool catching up in real time. A comparative analysis against each town's currently active homes and its most recent closings is the only way to see where a specific property actually sits.
Questions Homeowners Are Asking This Summer
Should I lower my asking price this summer compared to last summer?
Not in Bay Head, where median sale price is up 178.7% year over year. In Mantoloking, pricing has barely moved, down just 0.3%, so a significant adjustment isn't supported by the data there either.
Is it still worth listing now, or should I wait for next year?
Neither town's data supports waiting. Bay Head's median sale price is already 178.7% above last summer's, and Mantoloking's market is steady to improved on speed and volume, so there's no evidence a pause helps in either town.
How long will my home sit on the market right now in each town?
In Bay Head, the current average is 169.7 days, up from 31.6 a year ago. In Mantoloking, the current average is 72.5 days, down from 159.3 a year ago. Both are the realistic benchmarks to plan a timeline around.
Are buyers still active in Bay Head and Mantoloking?
Yes in both. Bay Head's pending contracts rose from 3 to 5, a 66.7% increase, even as closed sales fell, and Mantoloking's closed sales rose from 3 to 4, a 33.3% increase.
Should I expect a fast sale like some listings saw last summer?
In Bay Head, no. Average days on market stretched from 31.6 to 169.7 days. In Mantoloking, the opposite is true: average days on market improved from 159.3 to 72.5 days, faster than last summer.
Why did new listings surge in Bay Head but barely move in Mantoloking?
Bay Head saw new listings jump from 1 to 6, a 500.0% increase, likely responding to the sharp rise in closing prices. Mantoloking saw a much smaller shift, from 0 to 1, consistent with its steadier year-over-year pattern.
Should I wait until next summer for the market to normalize?
There's no data supporting that. Bay Head's pricing has already moved sharply higher this year, and Mantoloking's market is already close to normal compared to a year ago, so a wait doesn't have a clear payoff in either town.
Which town is seeing steeper price movement this year?
Bay Head, by a wide margin. Its median sale price rose 178.7% year over year, while Mantoloking's slipped just 0.3% over the same stretch.
Why did Bay Head's closed sales drop even as pending contracts rose?
Closed sales fell from 7 to 3, a 57.1% decrease, but pending contracts rose from 3 to 5, a 66.7% increase, over the same two months. That combination points to deals moving through the pipeline on a longer timeline this year, some closing after the June-July window, rather than buyer demand disappearing.
Should I price against last summer's numbers or this summer's?
This summer's, in both towns. Bay Head's $2,350,000 median from a year ago and Mantoloking's $3,295,000 median from a year ago both reflect a market that has since moved, sharply in Bay Head's case and only slightly in Mantoloking's. The most recent closings and active competition in each town are the more accurate basis for pricing a home today.
